BSP’s weakness can cause big damage to BJP in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, maths is deteriorating
Campaigning for the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh is in full swing. From PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah to all the veteran leaders, BJP has fielded in the election campaign. On the other hand, Akhilesh Yadav, the chief of the main opposition party Samajwadi Party, is also continuously making different trips across the state. Even through caste conventions, BJP and SP are trying to give competition to each other. However, in the meantime, Mayawati’s inaction is giving a different indication about the election. In the last three decades, the UP elections have always been a triangular contest. Congress has remained on the margins for two decades. In such a situation, now the political equations can change due to the very weak appearance of the BSP and its loss can be directly to the BJP.
To understand this equation, we have to analyze the results of the 2017 assembly elections. The Bahujan Samaj Party might have won 19 seats then, but it got 22.23 percent of the votes, which was the highest after the BJP. On the other hand, SP had secured 47 seats with 21.82% votes. Congress could get only 7 seats with 6.25% votes. But now in 5 years, instead of getting stronger, the BSP seems to be weakening. Out of its 19, only three MLAs are left. Mayawati herself has thrown out a dozen MLAs from the party. Apart from this, the state president has changed 4 times in 3 years.
How BSP’s weakness will harm BJP
Not only this, his activism in the election season is also very less. Till now, Mayawati has neither held any big rally nor has any leader joined the BSP after breaking away from the other party. It is clear that the main battle is visible between the BJP and the SP and this is a cause for concern for the saffron camp. In 2017, the BJP got 39.67 per cent votes and won 312 seats. It is clear that 60 per cent of the vote was against the BJP, which was split among many other parties including BSP, SP and Congress. Now that the BSP seems to be weakening, then a big vote of its share can go to the account of the SP.
If repeated success on reserve seats, then the BJP will shine again
A vote trying to stop the BJP from winning can go to the SP seeing the BSP weak. This situation will be worrying for the BJP. However, the only ray of hope for her would be how far she is able to make inroads among the Dalit votes. In 2017, the BJP had won 70 of the 86 reserved seats in the state, while the BSP could win only two here. This shows that BJP has already made a dent in BSP votes. But 5 years have passed since then. If once again the BJP performs well in the reserve seats and can make inroads among Dalits, it will be in a position to take advantage of the weakness of the BSP. Otherwise, the SP can overtake by taking a large share in Muslim and Dalit votes as well.
