Has BJP made a mistake by not adopting the formula of Gujarat, Uttarakhand in Himachal?
The Congress managed to return to power by winning 40 seats in the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections. BJP had given a slogan in its election campaign, ‘Sarkar Nahi Riwaj Badalenge’, but the people of the state did not change the customs but changed the government. BJP had to satisfy with just 25 seats. Eight out of 10 ministers of the Jairam Thakur government lost the elections, while in Gujarat the party managed to retain power with a historic victory. Questions are being raised that what political mistake has BJP made in Himachal by not adopting the formula of changing CM before elections like in Uttarakhand and Gujarat?
Significantly, since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has changed five chief ministers including Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Tripura and Karnataka. In this way, BJP adopted its strategy of replacing the old CM in the assembly elections with a new face, which it got benefited in Uttarakhand first and now in Gujarat this bet was successful. In this way, elections have been held in two out of five states, where it has won, while elections are to be held in the remaining three states.
In Uttarakhand, through this formula, the BJP was able to break the trend of change of power every five years for the last two decades. At the same time, in Assam, instead of contesting elections on the face of the current CM, the BJP entered the election field under collective leadership. This strategy was also successful and after coming to power, instead of repeating the current CM Sarbananda Sonowal, BJP handed over the chair to Hemant Biswa Sarma.
In Himachal Pradesh, BJP entered the election field under the leadership of Jairam Thakur, but could not change the practice of change of power in the state since three and a half decades. Although, when the BJP was changing its CM in the states, speculations were being made about Jairam Thakur’s change as well, but the party kept its faith in him and it once again entered the fray under his leadership in the 2022 elections. .
Even during the by-elections in Himachal in the year 2020, it was clear that the BJP in the state is struggling with lack of leadership. It is believed that CM Jairam Thakur, despite being in power for five years, could not gain popularity among the people like Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar. Jairam Thakur became the Chief Minister in 2017 when BJP’s CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal lost the election.
JP Nadda said in Agenda Aaj Tak
So did BJP lose in Himachal due to non-change of CM? In Agenda Aaj Tak 2022, when the same question was asked to the party’s National President JP Nadda, he said that Jairam Thakur has done a very good job, but we welcome the mandate. Till now in Himachal, there used to be a six per cent difference between the winning and losing party in swing votes. This time there is a difference of one per cent vote. The Congress vote is just one percent more than the BJP. It is clear from this that there was no anti-incumbency wave against the government and the people of Himachal were happy with the functioning of the Jairam government. In such a situation, we are finding out the reason for the defeat.
On the formula of changing all the ministers including the Chief Minister in Gujarat, JP Nadda said that in Gujarat we have been in power for 27 years, it is called BJP’s laboratory. There they keep on doing new experiments. In Gujarat too, all the ministers including the Chief Minister have been removed and new CMs and ministers have been appointed, so it was not that there is an anti-incumbency wave against the government there. It was done as an experiment in the state, which was successful. It can be further implemented in any other state.
There was a big upheaval in Gujarat 1 year ago
Let us tell you that just a year before the Gujarat assembly elections, the BJP removed all the ministers including the Chief Minister and gave a chance to new faces in their place. Bhupendra Patel was made CM in place of Vijay Rupani and leaders like Nitin Patel were also discharged. It was believed that BJP had run this bet to beat the anti-incumbency wave in Gujarat. In the assembly elections, BJP came with a new face and has returned to power with the highest number of seats in the history so far.
With the BJP’s defeat in the Jharkhand assembly elections, as well as Chief Minister Raghubar Das himself losing his seat, the party realized the need for a leadership change. After this, while changing the Chief Minister in Karnataka, the BJP made another Lingayat leader Basavaraj S. Bommai as the Chief Minister of Karnataka in place of BS Yeddyurappa coming from the Lingayat community. The BJP appointed another Thakur leader in place of two Thakur chief ministers in Uttarakhand. Similarly, replacing Vijay Rupani, Bhupendra Patel was made the Chief Minister of Gujarat.
BJP changed five chief ministers after 2019
With a successful bet of changing the chief minister just before the elections in Uttarakhand, top BJP leaders have opted for a similar change in Tripura, which goes to polls early next year. The BJP has changed five chief ministers since 2019, including Gujarat and Karnataka, out of which this strategy was successful in the elections of two states. In Himachal, the BJP entered the election field under the leadership of Jairam Thakur, who could not break the practice of change of power. In such a situation, the question arises that what political mistake has been committed by not adopting the formula of Gujarat and Uttarakhand in Himachal?
