Israel’s ammunition is running out: America and Europe also have shortage; Where did all the ammunition stock go?

9 October i.e. Monday morning. Senior officials of the Biden administration in America called an urgent meeting. This included MPs and security heads. Officials said, ‘Israel, America’s closest ally in the Middle East, is in dire need of interceptor missiles and precision target attack missiles used in Iron Dome. Israel also wants smaller diameter bombs made in America.

Not even 48 hours had passed since the Hamas attack on Israel when this meeting drew attention to the shortage of ammunition in Israel. America has delivered the first consignment of ammunition to Israel. The outcome of this war is not known, hence a lot of such help may have to be sent.

In Bhaskar Explainer, you will know why America and Europe are struggling with the supply shortage of ammunition, whom will they help between Ukraine and Israel…

Where did America’s ammunition stock go?

January 2023 i.e. 10 months ago. America decided to send about 3 lakh 155mm cannon shells to Ukraine from its weapons treasury in Israel.

On this issue, Israel’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Richard Hecht said that America owns the ammunition given to Ukraine. America has supplied Ukraine from its military base in Israel. In such a situation, Israel has nothing to do with this matter.

A few months before this, i.e. in 2022, America had sent 1 million Iranian cannon balls from the Israeli treasury to Ukraine. These were confiscated by America. All NATO countries including America are helping Ukraine against Russia by sending weapons. A German official told Foreign Policy magazine that European countries are facing ammunition shortages as their stocks are used up in the Ukraine war.

All NATO countries together are not able to produce as much ammunition as Ukraine needs. This can be understood from a statement by Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova. He had said in an interview to CNN that our army has the capability to fire more than 10,000 shells every day. Whereas due to shortage of shells our army is firing only 6,000 shells. Meaning, only Ukraine needs 1 lakh 80 thousand cannon balls in a month.

On the matter of shortage of cannon balls, America had said in September that the capacity to make cannon balls is being increased rapidly. America aims to produce 1 lakh cannon balls every month by 2025. It is clear that America is producing 80 thousand less shells every month than Ukraine is firing.

If America continues to supply ammunition to Ukraine amid the Hamas-Israel war, it may increase problems for the Israeli army. The reason for this is that Israel is completely dependent on America for ammunition.

After the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, America built large warehouses in Israel to store weapons and ammunition. An agreement was reached between the two countries in 1980. Through this, the Pentagon got legal validity to keep weapons in Israel.

Tanks and armored vehicles of the US Army are also kept in these warehouses. Since 2000, all types of weapons belonging to the US Army, Navy and Air Force started being kept in Israeli military bases. The objective was only one – to strengthen Israel in the Middle East.

According to NYT, through an agreement, Israel has the right to use American weapons present in its country in case of crisis. In the last months, the ammunition kept here was sent to Ukraine. Now suddenly when Israel needed it, its reserves were empty.

Israel had sensed this situation. In August this year, it had placed an order for 10 lakh 155mm shells to a company named Albit System. Apart from this, the government decided to purchase M107-A3 cannon shells. However, it is difficult to supply all these orders before 2024.

How much ammunition does Israel need in this war?

In 2014, the Israeli army fired more than 32 thousand shells on Gaza. This time the situation is many times more serious than 2014. Israel has declared full scale war. In such a situation, the need for ammunition will be many times more than before.

A Pentagon official says the US expects Israel to soon demand more weapons and ammunition. It will not be easy for America to fulfill this demand.

The official says that Israel has dropped the maximum number of GBU-39 bombs on Gaza through fighter planes. In such a situation, if there is a shortage of this bomb, Israel can soon demand it from America. Apart from this, there may also be a shortage of 122mm tank shells and mortars in Israel. The biggest challenge is to ensure that Israel does not face shortage of missiles for Iron Dome.

Israel’s focus is entirely on Gaza, but there is also a threat of attack by Hezbollah from Lebanon. Hezbollah shelled Israel from three places recently. In response, Israel also fired dozens of missiles towards Lebanon.

Hezbollah has more than 10 thousand dangerous missiles. At such a time, if it uses these missiles against Israel, then Israel will have to use at least this many or more missiles in its defense. In this situation, it may be difficult for America to help Israel at this time.

Israel is also alert regarding Iran. If Iran enters the war, the difficulties for Israel will increase further. In such a situation, proper supply of ammunition in large quantities to Israel is necessary.

Ukraine or Israel, where will America focus?

US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin had said on October 8, the day after the Hamas attack, that the first batch of arms and ammunition had been sent to help Israel. The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford has also left for Israel.

Biden has also promised that Israel will be helped in every possible way. Will Israel be able to be helped without disrupting Ukraine’s supplies? On this question, the Biden administration said that there are definitely challenges in this, but they will manage.

America and Israel have a long-standing military cooperation relationship. The two countries had signed a 10-year agreement in 2016 for an annual grant of $38 billion to purchase defense equipment and a $5 billion missile defense agreement.

On the other hand, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, America has sent security assistance worth $44 billion to Ukraine. The last tranche was approved in December 2022. Defense experts believe that the ammunition needs of Israel and Ukraine are different.

In the phase of war that Israel is in, its main need is for interceptor missiles to protect its civilian settlements, military command centers and control centers. It is unlikely that Israel would have exhausted its small arms ammunition early in the war.

Ukraine’s key needs, on the other hand, are ammunition, missile defense systems and ground vehicles as it fights to take back territory from Russian troops.

According to Abhijit Iyer Mitra, senior fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, there is a possibility that Israel may be short of ammunition.

However, there is a fundamental difference between the Ukraine and Israel wars. Unlike the Ukrainian army, the Israeli army does not waste many shells. Therefore Israel will need less ammunition than Ukraine.

According to Abhijeet Iyer, the Israeli Army knows its target. He is more expert in technology matters. In such a situation, she will not waste too many shells. Gaza is densely populated. Very close to Israel. In such a situation, there is no possibility of much use of cannon balls. Even if this happens, Israel is better than any other country in terms of producing arms and ammunition. In such a situation, it is unlikely that Israel will face much shortage of ammunition.