SP-coalition in Congress, seven years later, together in the election, what will change in UP?
There has been a change once again in the politics of the state. After 7 years, the politics of the state again seems to be reaching the same pole where it was in the year 2017. Before the UP Assembly elections 2017, Akhilesh Yadav was the Chief Minister of the state. But, after the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections 2014, his hold on the politics of the state weakened. In such a situation, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi joined hands to stop the rise of Bharatiya Janata Party. There was a lot of discussion about the amazing performance of ‘two boys’ pair in the entire state. Prashant Kishor, who was once the election strategist of Bharatiya Janata Party, was seen playing a big role in forming this alliance and getting it off the ground. The alliance could not perform well in the UP elections 2017. After this, the paths of Samajwadi Party and Congress parted ways. Now after seven years, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi have come together once again. This time Priyanka Gandhi has played a big role behind this alliance. Under the alliance, Samajwadi Party will field its candidates on 63 seats and Congress on 17 seats. SP will remove its candidates from those seats including Varanasi, which have gone to the Congress side under the alliance. A big announcement in this regard was made in the joint press conference of Congress-SP on Wednesday.
Parted ways after 2017 election results
After the results of UP elections 2017, both the parties parted ways and were never seen together again. Meanwhile three elections were held. Congress continued lagging behind in all three. Samajwadi Party also was not successful in regaining its old position during this period. Barring the record vote share in UP elections 2022, the last three elections have not given any special results for Akhilesh Yadav. Samajwadi Party tried to improve its position by forming an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. However, the party did not achieve that level of success. Yes, Bahujan Samaj Party definitely took advantage of the alliance with SP. The party won its candidates on 10 seats.
Big crisis facing Congress
Congress, which won two Lok Sabha seats Amethi and Rae Bareli in 2014, was reduced to half its strength in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. Rahul Gandhi lost the election from Amethi. Sonia Gandhi had managed to save only her seat from Rae Bareli. Sonia Gandhi has decided not to contest from Rae Bareli in the Lok Sabha elections 2024. However, under the alliance, both Amethi and Rae Bareli seats have gone to Congress. The challenge before Congress is to maintain its political existence in the state.
Congress needed the support of SP the most in the state. For this reason the party agreed to contest elections on 17 seats only. Earlier Akhilesh had offered 11 seats to Congress. After Jayant Chaudhary’s separation from the alliance, it is believed that the 6 seats that were meant for him have also been given to Congress.
Congress from 28 to 2 in 10 years
Congress has faced continuous setbacks in the last years. Congress, which has a huge political influence in UP, suffered consecutive setbacks in the last three assembly elections. In the UP elections 2012, Congress had won 28 seats with about 11.7 percent vote share. Congress suffered a big setback in UP elections 2017. Even after alliance with Samajwadi Party, the party could get only 6.25 percent votes. Out of 114 candidates of the party, only 7 managed to register victory.
In UP elections 2022, it managed to win only 2 seats with 2.33 percent vote share. Under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi, Congress had fielded its candidates on 399 seats. Even after this the party was not successful in increasing its support base. At the same time, SP, which got 21.82 percent votes in 2017, got 32.06 percent votes in the 2022 assembly elections. In five years the party reached 47 to 111 seats.
Alliance is necessary for Congress-SP
An alliance had become necessary for Congress and Samajwadi Party in UP. In fact, in recent times the Samajwadi Party has not been able to connect the Muslim vote bank with itself that way. Akhilesh Yadav’s soft Hindutva politics has increased Akhilesh’s worries. This vote bank could have shifted towards Congress and BSP. Now by associating with Congress, Akhilesh has once again tried to establish his trust in this vote bank. At the same time, by keeping Mayawati out of the alliance, the party has also made it realize its strength in the opposition.
Recently there were reports of tussle with Congress regarding Moradabad seat. Actually, there were speculations that Priyanka Gandhi’s husband Robert Vadra would be made the candidate from Moradabad seat. But, Akhilesh was not in favor of removing ST Hasan. Now this seat has again come into the favor of SP. This will be an attempt to convey the message to the Muslim vote bank that Akhilesh had even sacrificed the alliance for the leader of their community. Such messages can make a big difference in the election field.
Congress has the challenge of increasing its support base. Also, booth level workers are facing the biggest problem. The party is struggling with the weakness of the organization at the lower level. In this type of situation, Congress needs a strong organization. The party can get this by joining Samajwadi Party. After this the party can strengthen its position in the Lok Sabha constituencies. However, the challenge is also going to be to shift the lower level workers to Congress or SP candidates.
