Uttarakhand: BJP is trying for its first win, hopes for a big upset by fielding Bhadana

In the by-elections being held on two assembly seats in Uttarakhand, BJP has entered the fray for the first time with the hope of winning the Mangalore assembly seat. This Muslim-dominated seat of Haridwar district has always been an impenetrable fort for it. It has faced a crushing defeat in all the elections held here so far, but it is in the fray with the intention and new strategy to conquer this impenetrable fort.

Making Kartar Singh Bhadana, who was brought from outside the state to contest the elections, as a candidate is also being considered a part of its strategy. If we look at its performance in the previous assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has so far got the highest number of 24101 votes on this seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its votes decreased to 21000.

In the 2017 assembly elections, it had secured only 16964 votes and in 2022 it got 18763 votes. That is, in five years it could increase only 1799 votes. In not a single election, it was seen anywhere near Congress and BSP.

Muslim and Scheduled Caste votes are decisive

Muslim and Scheduled Caste votes are considered decisive in Mangalore seat. 50 percent of the votes in the assembly constituency are Muslim, while 18 percent are Scheduled Caste votes. 32 percent of the votes come from OBC, Gurjar, Saini and other classes. Due to the high number of Muslim voters, leaders of this community have been winning. In 2017, Congress’s Qazi Nizamuddin and in 2022 BSP’s Sarbat Karim Ansari won the election. BSP has fielded his son Obairdur Rahman on this seat vacated by the death of Sarbat Karim Ansari, while Qazi is in the fray from Congress.

Expectation of vote division and strategy to divide

Since the 2022 assembly elections, BJP has been working on a strategy to increase its vote bank on 23 lost seats. Mangalore is also included in these lost seats. The party has formed its committees at all booths in Mangalore. The party’s state general secretary Aditya Kothari says, “There are workers from the Muslim community in our booth committees as well. They are working with full capacity to connect as many people as possible to the ideology of the BJP. This will yield positive results in the elections.” Experts believe that the BJP is expecting the Muslim votes to be divided between the BSP and Congress candidates on this seat. It hopes that the remaining votes will fall in its kitty after being influenced by the schemes of the central and state governments.

Uncomfortable on the issue of constitution and reservation

In the by-election, the Congress and BSP candidates are making the BJP uncomfortable on the issue of constitution and reservation. According to BJP leaders, the opposition is trying to create an environment of confusion and lies on both these issues. We are going among the voters and making it clear that neither the constitution is going to change nor the reservation is going to end. The government has no such intention. This is false propaganda of the opposition.