China can attack Taiwan in just one week, Japan’s government report scares
A Japanese government report has warned that China’s ability to invade Taiwan has improved significantly. The report lays out a possible timeline of events if China fully commits to invading Taiwan. The Yomiuri Shimbun report suggests that if the Chinese military and government effectively coordinate troops, they could land their troops in Taiwan within a week of hostilities starting. The report is based on an analysis of China’s military training operations involving naval ships and missile launches during the summer of 2023.
China’s capabilities vastly improved
The report concludes that China’s technological and organizational capabilities have improved far beyond many previous analyses. The report says Tokyo should remain vigilant and increase preventive efforts to avoid conflict over Taiwan. The report also says China is possibly considering a rapid attack strategy to take advantage of the situation before the US has time to react.
Japanese PM also saw the report
The Yomiuri article said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida saw the contents of the report earlier this year. The general order of operations for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the report is consistent with most analyses of the situation. However, previous reports estimated that it could take about a month for the Chinese military to set up secure barricades and supply lines.
China will invade in four phases
The new report describes a much more urgent scenario. The hypothetical invasion scenario involves four main phases, including: naval blockade, bombing of military facilities, amphibious (land and sea) and air assault to set up barricades, and finally mass transport of equipment and ground forces. The analysts who wrote the report believe that with proper coordination and weather conditions, the Chinese military could potentially begin the fourth phase within four to five days of imposing a naval blockade.
China will also launch cyber attacks on Taiwan
The report also expects China to launch cyber attacks on key infrastructure and agents in Taiwan to create confusion, restrict communications and limit access to energy. This “hybrid warfare” strategy could potentially paralyze the Taiwanese government during the crucial early days of the invasion campaign.
