There is strong growth in trade between India and China, while there is a possibility of economic recession at the global level

A UN report said that India and China saw better-than-average trade expansion in the October-December quarter of 2024. The report also warned of a ‘possibility of economic slowdown’ globally in the upcoming quarters. The latest global trade update by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which covers data up to early March, said global trade in 2024 expanded by nearly $1,200 billion or 9 per cent to reach $33,000 billion. “Developing countries, especially China and India, experienced better-than-average trade expansion, while trade in many developed countries declined,” the report said.

China and India’s trade remained strong

It said that China and India saw strong trade momentum in the fourth quarter of 2024. Merchandise trade between major economies showed mixed trends in the fourth quarter of 2024. Trade between China and India continued to grow, especially exports. In contrast, export growth in South Korea declined, although it remained the highest among major economies on an annual basis. In the US, import growth remained positive in the fourth quarter of 2024, while export growth declined. Import growth trends remained negative on both quarterly and annual basis for Japan, Russia, South Africa and the European Union.

Imports increased

The report said that India recorded an import growth of 8 per cent quarterly and annual import growth of six per cent in goods trade in the fourth quarter of 2024. While quarterly export growth in goods was 7 per cent and annual export growth was 2 per cent. Service trade continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, it was at a slower pace than the annual figures. This indicates that the positive trend in service trade may be stabilizing for most economies. Service trade growth remained strong for India and South Africa. On an annual basis, service trade growth reached double digit figures for many of the largest developing economies. While it remained at very high levels for most developed economies. The report said that India recorded a quarterly import growth of seven per cent and annual import growth of 10 per cent in services in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. While quarterly export growth was three per cent and annual export growth in services was 10 per cent.