Rahul Gandhi’s attack on Election Commission: Fear of defeat in Bihar or strategic cleverness? Understand the political math of profit and loss

Amidst the heat of Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, Congress leader and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi has recently sparked a new controversy by alleging alleged ‘match fixing’ in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. He claimed that there was manipulation of the voter list and abnormal increase in voting percentage in Maharashtra and this blueprint of ‘election rigging’ can now be applied in Bihar. There has been a sharp reaction from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on this statement, while the Grand Alliance has termed it an issue raised in the interest of the public. This controversy can bring a new turn in the politics of Bihar, as NDA leaders have now started saying that Rahul Gandhi has accepted the defeat of the Grand Alliance even before the Bihar elections. After all, what are its political messages, has Rahul Gandhi really scored a self goal or has he made a big move by questioning the Election Commission? Rahul Gandhi’s allegation- Rahul Gandhi claimed in a post on Instagram that there was an increase of 31 lakh in the number of voters in Maharashtra from 2019 to 2024, but in just five months from May 2024 to November 2024, an abnormal increase of 41 lakh voters was recorded. He termed it as ‘fake voters’ and expressed apprehension that this could happen in Bihar as well. Rahul Gandhi questioned the Election Commission and asked why his questions were not being answered if there was nothing to hide.

JP Nadda’s counterattack

BJP President JP Nadda hit back at Rahul Gandhi for questioning the Election Commission and said that Rahul Gandhi’s social media post is a blueprint to create fake discussions because he is sad and frustrated by losing elections continuously. He does it step by step in this manner. In the first phase, the Congress party loses election after election due to its antics. Instead of introspecting in the second phase, he (Rahul Gandhi) hatches bizarre conspiracies and cries foul play. In the third phase, he ignores all facts and figures and in the fourth phase, he defames institutions without any evidence.

JP Nadda further wrote, expecting headlines rather than facts and despite repeated exposure, he (Rahul Gandhi) continues to shamelessly spread lies. He is doing this because his defeat in Bihar is certain. JP Nadda said that democracy needs truth, not drama. Let us tell you that earlier a statement had also come from the Election Commission that making such allegations after the election results are not in favor is absurd. All these facts were put forward in his reply sent to the Congress on 24 December 2024, which are available on the Election Commission’s website. It seems that all these facts are being completely ignored while raising such issues again and again.

People who accept defeat say such things

At the same time, NDA described this statement of the Congress leader as Rahul Gandhi’s frustration and fear of defeat in Bihar. Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi also took a jibe and said, people who accept defeat say such things. JDU spokesperson Abhishek Jha targeted Rahul and said that he is already making an excuse for defeat by raising questions on EVMs. While BJP President JP Nadda has already termed Rahul’s allegations as a ‘ridiculous conspiracy’ and said that there is no fact in it..

Defense and strategy of the Grand Alliance

While, the Grand Alliance comprising RJD, Congress and Left parties has defended Rahul Gandhi’s statement. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav said that Rahul has raised a legitimate question to protect democracy. He said, those who want to get the mandate of the voters by manipulation are now upset with these questions. Congress’ Bihar in-charge Rajesh Kumar said that Rahul’s statement is an attempt to alert the people of Bihar so that they protect their voting rights.

Made the grand alliance defensive!

However, in the eyes of political experts, this statement of Rahul Gandhi is a double-edged sword in the strategy of the grand alliance. Senior journalist Ashok Kumar Sharma says that on the one hand it can create an atmosphere against the NDA by questioning the impartiality of the Election Commission among the voters. Especially among the youth and minority communities. But, on the other hand, this statement has also made the grand alliance defensive because the NDA is propagating it as the ‘confession of defeat’ of the grand alliance. Let us tell you that this fear of defeat starts to seem more relevant when there is talk of the grand alliance winning 11 seats in Bihar and the NDA performing better with 29 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Electoral equations and impact

Let us tell you that in the assembly elections to be held in Bihar in October-November 2025, the NDA is in the fray unitedly under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. In the 2024 by-elections, the NDA showed its strength by winning four out of four seats, while the Grand Alliance had to face defeat in strongholds like Belagnj. On the one hand, the rise of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and his Nav Sankalp rally is strengthening the NDA among Dalit and OBC voters. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi’s statement can be risky for the Grand Alliance, as it can create distrust among the voters. However, political experts also see some positive possibilities in Rahul Gandhi’s allegations.

Is it not harmful for the Grand Alliance?

Ashok Kumar Sharma says that if Rahul Gandhi’s statement is taken to the public in the right way, then it can make the issue of NDA’s alleged ‘election rigging’ an issue for the Grand Alliance. Congress is trying to make inroads in Bihar through programs like ‘Nyay Samvad’ and ‘Palayan Roko, Naukari Do’. In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi’s questioning the Election Commission can be a strategic move, which is an attempt to corner the NDA by linking the Grand Alliance with issues like anti-incumbency and unemployment in Bihar. However, the sharp reaction of the NDA and presenting Rahul’s statement as an “admission of defeat” can be harmful for the Grand Alliance.