The road is not easy for the BJP in UP, the competition is triangular, how will the BJP sail through?

In Kakori near Lucknow, Ram Singh Yadav was telling everyone that now the entire election environment has changed. Look, big leaders from BJP are now coming with Akhilesh. Know the direction of the wind. There was no fight left. After listening to him, I ask Sundar Maurya, standing in a paan shop nearby, what is going to happen in the election now? Where will the election sit? Sunder smiles sarcastically and says – let me tell you that everything has changed. The election has become one-sided, but it is not. Standing there, Ganesh Lodhi says that whatever happens, Modi has supported a lot in times of crisis. Never before have we received so much help from any government. Ram Singh gets angry on hearing their words and says that he is praising the free who is being distributed in the village. Everything has been destroyed, yet they are praising Modi-Yogi. In fact, the ground reality of the village is that after the Corona period, the help provided by the central and state governments has a deep impact. In fact, the Bharatiya Janata Party has created such a vote bank, which does not speak, but casts votes.

Recently, when Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav went out for election campaign and there was a huge crowd in his public meetings, it seemed that the only alternative to the Bharatiya Janata Party is Akhilesh Yadav. The electoral scenario which became clear from this is that the support base of Akhilesh Yadav has been strengthened. But the question is whether he has reached the crucial stage where he can form the government in the state? Political observers know that this election has instilled in the minds of Muslim and Yadav voters the belief that the Bharatiya Janata Party can be defeated and it is this belief that is driving SP supporters to the streets and there is no doubt that they should vote. Will take you to the centre.

But if this social situation is studied deeply, it becomes clear that even now this fight is not so easy. BJP’s traditional ultra backward voter is standing with him. Shatrughan Maurya of Pali village in Kanpur says that Modi is their leader and the leader is also because he has helped the people. That’s why the backward are still with them. Moh Mad Ashraf, sitting in a shop near Ajgain in Unnao district, says that this time people want change. Everyone is troubled by stray animals, by inflation. This time there will definitely be a change. But Ramdin Kushwaha sitting next to him says that they want to make changes and we want to keep Yogi and Modi only. Most of the families are getting free food grains. Money has come in the account of many people. The government is working, so what is the need for change.

Before 2014, the backward and Dalit vote was divided between SP and BSP. This vote bank was also the basis of the strength of these two parties. But after the arrival of Narendra Modi in 2014, this voter joined the BJP. In the 2017 assembly elections, there was an electoral alliance between Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi to break this vote bank, but did not succeed. BJP got huge public support in this election. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the most powerful grand alliance took place in the social point of view and it included all three Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal. If the social equations of this alliance are seen, then in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Uttar Pradesh should have been one-sided. The leaders of the grand alliance were also claiming that they would get 70 to 75 seats. Political observers were also claiming similar great success to the Grand Alliance. But got only 15 seats.

The biggest challenge before the opposition parties is how to snatch the backward and Dalit votes from the BJP. The defection of some Bharatiya Janata Party leaders and the same allegation in their resignations, that the BJP is anti-Dalit and anti-backward, is part of this strategy. In fact this is a new experiment to snatch backward and Dalit votes from BJP. Akhilesh Yadav and BSP President Mayawati also know that unless the backward and Dalit votes are cut from the BJP, it is difficult to remove it. The questions are being raised that after enjoying the chair for 5 years, why did the backward and the Dalit started worrying?
Arun Rajput, who came to buy fertilizer from a cooperative society in Raksa town of Jhansi district, says that there was not much change in the 2019 and 2022 elections. Some votes have definitely gone in favor of SP but not enough to change the election. On why this happened, his colleague Dinu Kashyap says that people have faced problems, inflation has increased. The crop has been damaged by stray animals but the government help has also been received a lot. Ramendra Pastor of Orai says this in his own way. He is angry with the government, which is because he feels that a large number of people are being given free food grains and help, not getting laborers for their fields. After an in-depth assessment of the old electoral scenario, it becomes clear that the fight in Uttar Pradesh is triangular. Those who are completely sidelining Mayawati are not aware of the ground reality. Mayawati’s core vote is tied to her and in many areas the BSP is in a tough fight against the BJP. But for the time being, the Bharatiya Janata Party is maintaining a slight edge over its rivals, but as the election progresses, these electoral equations will remain, it is difficult to say.