RSS gives green signal on caste census, will BJP come out of dilemma
Former Congress President Rahul Gandhi has been leading the campaign for the demand of caste census for the last one and a half years. Leaders like Akhilesh Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav are also vocal about it. From Chirag Paswan, the head of Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to Anupriya Patel, the head of Apna Dal (Sonelal) in UP, have been seen demanding caste census. When the opposition parties raised the issue of caste census in the recent meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on OBC welfare, NDA constituents like JDU also supported this demand.
It is clear that caste census is an issue after years on which the BJP and the Modi government are facing pressure not only from the opposition but also from allies. However, both have neither said yes nor deny on this issue. BJP, which is stuck in this dilemma on the issue of caste census, has now been shown the way by the stand of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.
In fact, after a three-day coordination meeting in Palakkad, Kerala, RSS’s All India Publicity Chief Sunil Ambekar termed caste reactions as a sensitive issue and said that it is important for national integration. While indicating support for caste census, he also said that it should not be used for election campaign and electoral purposes. After getting the green signal from the Sangh, now the ball of caste census is in BJP’s court.
BJP’s dilemma is that if it announces to conduct caste census, then its core voters since its inception, along with Brahmins and upper castes, SC-ST voters may also get angry. If it does not conduct the census, then the OBC voters who came with BJP due to the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and different equations in different states may get scattered. This is the reason why BJP has been following the policy of neither conducting it nor opposing it. Amit Shah himself has also said that BJP is not against caste census. If the states want, they can conduct caste census at their own level. Now the latest stand of the Sangh is being described as a middle path on this issue.
The compulsion of OBC votes of UP-Bihar
The all-party delegation led by Nitish Kumar, which met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to demand caste census in Bihar, also included Bihar BJP leaders. Whether it is caste census or the proposal to increase the limit of reservation, BJP may not have supported it but it never openly opposed it either. BJP focused on non-Yadav OBC castes of UP and Bihar and was successful to some extent. But in the recent Lok Sabha elections, parties like SP and RJD were successful in increasing their base among the OBC class in UP-Bihar on the issue of caste census. Now it is believed that it will be difficult for the BJP to avoid this, that is, the party can bring a middle formula on caste census.
Why can the government announce caste census
The BJP-led central government, which has been showing a neutral stand on caste census till now, can change its stand on it after the green signal from the Sangh. Why the government can announce caste census can be understood from these points.
1- Attempt to remove anti-OBC tag
According to estimates, the OBC population is about half. Without the support of OBCs, it is difficult for any party to reach power at the center or state. Regarding caste census, the opposition is trying to create an anti-OBC narrative about BJP. BJP can conduct caste census in an attempt to remove the anti-OBC tag and keep the OBC vote bank in its camp.
2- Strategy to snatch the issue from the opposition
BJP’s strategy can also be to end the issue on which the opposition is cornering it by announcing caste census. But there is also a risk in this that the opposition may take the credit for it. Lalu Yadav’s post on social media platform X regarding the stance of the Sangh is pointing towards this. Lalu has posted on X that he will get the caste census done by making them do sit-ups.
3- Danger of Rohini Commission backfiring
The Rohini Commission, formed in 2017 for equitable distribution of reservation benefits, was being considered as a weapon to counter the caste census. Even before the Rohini Commission’s report came out, the way the Supreme Court’s comment on quota within quota in SC-ST category created a political uproar, BJP also feels that it might backfire. There was a plan to create sub-categories in OBC through the Rohini Commission.
