Intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours;very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning

he Deep Depression overLakshadweep area and adjoining southeast &eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past 6 hours, and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 14^th May, 2021 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast &eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 11.6°N and longitude 72.6°E, about 55 km north-northwest of Amini Divi, 290 km west-southwest of Kannur (Kerala), 1060 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).

It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18^th May morning.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i)         Rainfall: 

• Lakshadweep Islands: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places very likely on 14^th May, heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15^th May and heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th May.
• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 14^th, heavy to very heavy falls at a few places 15^th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th& 17^th May.
• Tamil Nadu (Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 14^th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 15^th May.  
• Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few paces with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 14^th& 15^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.
• Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at a few places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Goa on 14^th, at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over south Konkan & Goa and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over north Konkan on 15^th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over coastal districts of Saurashtra on 16^th, at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch on 18^th.
• Southwest Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely on 17^th& 18^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is very likely over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area and equatorial Indian Ocean on 14^th May.
• It is likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed reaching 70 – 80 kmph  gusting to 90 kmph over east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area from 15^th May morning.
•  Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely along & off Kerala coast on 14^th May and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off Kerala – Karnataka coasts on 15^th May.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely along & off south Maharashtra & Goa coasts on 15^th and Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa coasts on16^th May.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts on 17^th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast from the early hours of 18^th May and increase gradually thereafter till 18^th morning.

(iii)       Sea condition

• Sea conditions over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep – Maldives area & equatorial Indian Ocean will be rough to very rough on 14^th May.
• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be High to very High on 15^th& 16^th May and over northeast Arabian Sea from 17^th May.
• Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Comorin area and along & off Kerala coast on 14^th& 15^th, very rough to High over east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast on 15^th May and Maharashtra – Goa coasts on 15^th& 16^th May. It is very likely to be very rough to High over northeast Arabian Sea along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 18^th morning.

(iv) Tidal wave Warning:

• Tidal wave of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands on 15^th& 16^th May.

(v)        Fishermen Warning

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives areas,  east central Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast, eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

​(vi)  Impact expected over southeast, eastcentral& northeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep – Maldives area & Lakshadweep Islands and along & off Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat coasts and also the coastal & adjoining districts of all these States:

• Very rough to high seas, squally weather and gale winds around the system centre will affect shipping vessels and fishing operations.
• Inundation of low lying areas of the Islands of Lakshadweep during 14^th to 16^th May.
• Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall causing flash floods & landslides over the coastal districts of Kerala, Karnataka & Goa during 14^th – 16^th May and Saurashtra, Kutch during 18^th – 19^th May.
• Thunder squalls & Lightning could cause adverse impact on Human & Livestock as well as damage to Loose & unsecured structures along the coast line.

(vii) Advisory:

• Fishermen are advised not to venture into Arabian Sea during 14^th – 18^th May
• Ships are advised to avoid the area
• Ports along the west coast of India may take necessary precautions.
• Naval base operations may maintain necessary pre-cautions

Tourism activities may be restricted over the area specified for squally weather & rough Sea warning.

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

All India Weather Inference (EVENING) (Friday 14 May 2021, Time of Issue: 1715 hours IST Based on 1430 hours IST Observations 

·   The Depression over Lakshadweep area moved north north eastwards with a speed of 19 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 14th May, 2021 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast and east central Arabian sea near latitude 11.5°N and longitude 72.5°E, about 50 km north northwest of Amini Divi, 310 km west southwest of Kannur (Kerala), 1060 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north northwestwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning. 

·  The Western Disturbance as a trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 78°E to the north of latitude 30°N persists.

·  The cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan & neighbourhood extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

· The EastWest trough from the above cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan & neighbourhood to West Uttar Pradesh across Rajasthan at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

·  The cyclonic circulation over Vidarbha & neighbourhood extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

· The trough in westerlies between 1.5 km & 3.1 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 88°E to the north of latitude 25°N persists.

· The cyclonic circulation over Gangetic West Bengal & neighbourhood extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

·   The cyclonic circulation over central parts of Assam extending up to 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.