With the seventh and last phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh, assembly elections in five states will be completed. Counting of votes will take place on March 10 and only then it will be known in which state whose government is being formed. But the exit polls of all the news channels and other media organizations are forming the BJP government in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. In this process known as exit polls, various agencies estimate the results on the basis of the survey. But the question is, how accurate do these surveys prove to be? Can they be trusted? To know this, let us look at the final results and exit polls for the last five elections.

All surveys were failed in Bengal

In the popular elections that have been held in the past, the most attention was on West Bengal. There was also curiosity among people about the West Bengal elections held during the Corona epidemic and also political debate and debate. While BJP had given full force in this election, Trinamool leader Mamta Banerjee also fought fiercely. And when the results came, BJP was reduced to 77 seats. Mamata Banerjee’s TMC won 211 seats and formed the government with an absolute majority.

But in most of the exit polls, the BJP had shown more than 100 seats. Times Now had projected 115 seats for the BJP and 158 for the Trinamool, while Republic TV had given 143 seats to the BJP and 133 to the Trinamool. Axis My India had projected 147 seats to BJP and 143 seats to Trinamool. India TV went four steps ahead and claimed 192 seats for the BJP and only 8 seats for the Trinamool. In this way all the exit polls in West Bengal were proved wrong.

Exit polls turned out to be quite correct in Delhi

The exit poll predictions for the 70 seats of the Delhi Assembly were proved to be correct to some extent. In this election, the Aam Aadmi Party got 62 seats, although no one had predicted so many seats for AAP in the exit polls.

Surveys were also wrong in Bihar

But the exit polls were a flop in Bihar. Most of the surveys that were conducted had predicted the victory of the RJD-Congress alliance in Bihar. But in the real results, everything turned upside down and the BJP-JDU coalition government was formed in Bihar.

The survey for Republic TV Bihar had projected 128 seats for the RJD-Congress alliance and 104 for the JDU-BJP. Axis My India had talked about 80 seats for BJP-JDU and 150 for RDD-Congress. Tadej Chanakya had predicted 50 seats for BJP-JDU and 180 for RJD-Congress. ABP News had predicted 116 seats for BJP-JDU and 119 for RJD-Congress. But in real results BJP-JDU alliance got 125 seats and RJD-Congress got 110 seats. The BJP-JDU alliance formed the government for the third time in Bihar.

The pulse of voters could not be caught even in Haryana

The condition of Haryana was also similar. In Haryana, the ABP had projected 204 seats for the BJP alliance and 69 for the Congress. Republic had projected BJP alliance at 223 and Congress 54 seats, News18 predicted 243 for BJP and 41 for Congress while Axis My India projected BJP alliance for India Today at 181 and Congress at 81 seats. had guessed. But in real results, BJP got 164 seats and Congress got 96 seats. In this way the BJP could not get the majority figure and it had to form the government after the election with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP.

Actually Exit Poll is a process in which questions are asked to the voter while coming out of the polling booth after casting vote and on that basis guess which party is winning. This survey is done among thousands of people at hundreds of polling booths, then after analyzing all the answers, the number of seats is reached. Many times it has happened that the guesses have proved to be absolutely accurate, but many times they have turned out to be wrong.

2022 exit poll forecast in Uttar Pradesh

2022 exit poll forecast in Uttarakhand