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Taliban can become a ghastly for China and Pakistan, supporting it can prove to be a big mistake: Defense expert

The rule of the Taliban has been decided in Afghanistan. Fearful of the Taliban’s past atrocities, people are ready to risk everything for safe haven. But the question is rising in everyone’s mind that whether the Taliban will run the government as before. The softness that the Taliban has shown so far is not just a hoax. What a big challenge the dangerous alliance of Pakistan and China will create for India in Afghanistan. On some such questions, we spoke to Commodore C Uday Bhaskar, an expert on defense matters and director of the Society for Policy Studies. He says that the Taliban can also become an incendiary for China and Pakistan. The religious fanaticism that they are trying to fuel in Afghanistan can be seen in Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or Uighur Muslim in China’s Muslim-majority province of Xinjiang. . Blindly supporting the Taliban can prove to be a big mistake. Here are the highlights of the conversation.

Taliban can become a ghastly for China and Pakistan, supporting it can prove to be a big mistake: Defense expert

Taliban has also captured the capital Kabul.

Afghanistan Crisis: The rule of Taliban in Afghanistan has been decided. Fearful of the Taliban’s past atrocities, people are ready to risk everything for safe haven. But the question is rising in everyone’s mind that whether the Taliban will run the government as before. The softness that the Taliban has shown so far is not just a hoax. What a big challenge the dangerous alliance of Pakistan and China will create for India in Afghanistan. On some such questions, we spoke to Commodore C Uday Bhaskar, an expert on defense matters and director of the Society for Policy Studies. He says that the Taliban can also become an incendiary for China and Pakistan. The religious fanaticism that they are trying to fuel in Afghanistan can be seen in Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or Uighur Muslim in China’s Muslim-majority province of Xinjiang. . Blindly supporting the Taliban can prove to be a big mistake. Here are the highlights of the conversation…

1. Despite the Taliban occupation from Kandahar to Kabul, the Taliban has generally not caused any harm to Indian interests or development projects being built or prepared with the help of India. any reason for change

See, there was a time before that if you want to have a relationship with a side like Taliban, then there was a saying that trust but verify. But now I would say that such a time has come because of their atrocities, whether it is the atrocities on women like Malala Yousafzai, the attack on India’s mission in Afghanistan and the recent murder of journalist Danish Siddiqui. It can be said that after verifying their stand ie Verify and Only Then Trust, trust anything again. There is a strong possibility that this soft stance of the Taliban proves to be a hoax. With regard to the Taliban’s stance, India will have to step by step and take decisions very cautiously.

2. What should be India’s priority in Afghanistan

India’s priority is to protect Indian citizens or Afghans who work for them. Or to protect the people of India who have gone there to do business. Their safe return and ensuring that they are not attacked is the first priority for India. In such a situation, there will be a need for issue-based interactions with the Taliban. Interaction is the first phase and depending on the experiences, the second phase can be engagement, third is the endorsement and finally the embellishment. But for the time being, India should focus only on issue-based interactions to prioritize its interests.

3. How do you see the future of Afghanistan in the hands of the Taliban

It remains to be seen where and how the turmoil in the internal situation of Afghanistan will end. Whether there will be stability or not, we will know in a week or two weeks. The treatment of the Taliban will be towards women. What stand does he take on the issue of human rights? For example, in the 1995-2000 era, the Taliban even announced a ban on women wearing socks, they believed that it was a sexy symbol. In such a situation, after assuming power, how do they take decisions every day. What is its effect in South Asian politics, or in international politics. How is India directly affected?

4. Will Afghanistan again turn into a new laboratory of radicalization?

Suppose a new faction emerges against the Taliban in Afghanistan, it may be of Shias, Hazaras. Can be Tajik or Uzbek. Afghanistan has always been the place of warlords. A new faction can arise on the basis of ethnic, religious, linguistic or region. It is possible that with the support of Iran, a new faction will be formed on Mazar Sharif, which will say that they will not obey the orders of the new government in Kabul. If the same thing happens in other areas, then Afghanistan can again become a situation of civil war. But at the moment everyone is tired. At one time the Northern Alliance was formed, which was supported by India, Iran and Russia. Then there was a balance of power between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. But right now it doesn’t seem that any outside power would want to do something like this. America is going and with it the powers of all the western countries will also pull their hands.

5. What dangerous form can the dangerous alliance between Pakistan and China take on Afghanistan?

Pakistan is China’s proxy and Pakistan wants Afghanistan to work under its proxy i.e. undercover government. The Taliban is getting full funding and training, weapons and other types of logistical support. In such a situation, there will be an attempt to form a new dangerous alliance against India. In such a situation, the diplomatic space for India is shrinking very fast. The attitude of Iran, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal has also not been very encouraging towards India in recent times because of China.

6. Distance from the people sitting in power in Afghanistan, but how much will India’s soft power and participation in Afghanistan’s development be of use to it?

Will India lose the diplomatic edge that India has made in the last 20 years as a soft power through infrastructure development projects like education, health, roads and bridges in Afghanistan? It is not so, the good image of India has been in the hearts of Afghans for a long time. India has been making constructive contributions for a long time in the field of education, health, hospitality, infrastructure. Thousands of Afghan students take education in India. Take police-military training.

We have thousands of years of trade and cultural ties with Afghanistan, which are not easy to break. But unless there is an agreement or initiative with the Taliban, it will not be possible for India to pursue new development projects. It will also depend to a large extent on how much and what kind of interference Pakistan has in the new government of Afghanistan. In the current environment it would be possible for the Taliban to take a step like blowing up the statue of Lord Buddha in Bamiyan. Despite not believing in democracy, it will not be easy for them to demolish the Parliament building built by India.

7. Will the radical forces raise their heads again through the Taliban?
The Taliban will also try to gain international recognition. Countries like China, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkey will immediately recognize the Taliban. Efforts will be made to create new Islamic Emirates. There will be immediate support from Muslim-majority countries. Radical forces in these Islamic countries will be eager to support the Taliban, which rules Afghanistan according to Islamic Sharia. In Pakistan, Bangladesh or Malaysia, the demand for governance according to Islamic Sharia can also arise.

8. Will we get to see a new Islamic model of Taliban in Afghanistan or can there be some liberal face Islamic regime like UAE, Saudi Arabia.
See, we also had a similar belief about China and Pakistan that gradually in place of communist autocracy, liberal rule will be established in China. Similar thinking about Pakistan also proved wrong and now radical forces are getting stronger there too. The experience of the Taliban so far is not very promising.

9. What steps can India take while presiding over the United Nations Security Council?
The United Nations is not in a position to do anything right now. Nothing like this is possible without the five permanent members. Russia and China are on the side of the Taliban right now. In such a situation, the picture will have to wait for clear.